In the face of El Niño, local ski areas hope for snowy season

Though snow is already dusting Montana’s peaks above-average levels, a possible El Niño winter may yet stand in the way of a perfect ski season.

“We started off fairly active with above-normal precipitation, and a little on the cool side,” said Peter Felsch, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Missoula office. “We’re already above normal for this time of year.”

As of Monday, Stuart Mountain had about 180 percent of the historical average for Oct. 30, Felsch said. Stuart Mountain is the weather service’s measuring point closest to the Snowbowl ski area, just 20 minutes north of Missoula.

Felsch said parts of southwestern Montana also saw snow levels around 180 percent of the usual depth, and the Flathead Basin is at about 112 percent. The Bitterroot Valley is one of the only areas below average, with just 80 percent of its typical Oct. 30 snowfall.

While the weather has put many of Western Montana’s ski slopes on the fast track to a fully powdered mountain, there’s no guarantee that trend will continue through the season.

“That’s the big thing that’s kind of a question mark right now,” Felsch said. “The Climate Prediction Center is predicting an El Niño year.”

An El Niño year typically means milder temperatures and drier weather. “They swing around to warmer snow levels,” Felsch said. “It can vary of course. Overall it wouldn’t bode very well for the ski resorts.”

Montana’s ski resorts are keeping a close eye on snow pack, and several may be shooting for an early opening.

“We usually open on Thanksgiving Day,” said Peter Pitcher, owner of Discovery Ski Area, located 90 miles east of Missoula. “We were just talking about how a lot of years we open with less snow than we have right now.”

While Discovery could be open now, Pitcher said the lifts will only start running early if conditions are optimal, and the south face of the mountain gets about eight more inches. He said the north face already has 15 inches on top and eight at the base.

Other mountains are still tentative on their opening dates. Snowbowl has penciled in a Nov. 24 first day, and Big Sky Resort, about four and a half hours southeast of Missoula, has so far marked Nov. 23 for its opener. According to its Web site, Big Sky had 19 inches of snow at midmountain last week and 34 at the top.

Judy Grasser, co-owner of Lost Trail Powder Mountain, just south of the Bitterroot Valley, said although unusually high snowfall allowed Lost Trail to open Nov. 13 last year, she and the staff typically shoot for the first week of December.

“We’ve probably got about 4 inches,” Grasser said. She said it’s staying cold, and expects any snowfall from now on to stick around. “We’d probably like to have another at least 2 feet,” she said.

Northwest of Missoula on the Montana-Idaho border, Lookout Pass Ski Area may have the first open slopes. The mountain opened on Nov. 11 last year, though typically its first day is closer to Nov. 18.

“There is a very slim chance for this weekend,” said Casey Hatfield, mountain manager at Lookout. “We need probably another 10 inches of wet snow.

Though he’s optimistic, Hatfield said he’s heard El Niño rumors as well.

“It depends on Mother Nature,” he said. “Hopefully it’s going to be a great one, but I’ve heard both reports. One is El Niño, one is we’re supposed to be dumped on. It’s still mixed out there.”

Some people have noticed that warmer winters are becoming more common. Grasser’s father bought Lost Trail in 1967, and she’s been working and skiing at the mountain most of her life.

“I honestly think that it is warmer,” she said. “It seems like the snow comes later in the fall, and it just doesn’t seem like winter’s quite as long. I remember when I was a little girl, there’d be snow on the valley floor, and it would stay all winter. (Now) it tends to melt off.”

When it comes to more technical changes, Grasser said she’s hoping to make Lost Trail’s recent expansion fully accessible this year, rather than on the weekends only, like last season.

“That added another 600 acres, and probably another 18 to 20 runs,” she said.

As far as your wallet goes, daily lift tickets at most mountains have gone up a bit. Lost Trail is up a dollar to $29 per day, Lookout Pass is up $2 to $28 (though students pay $25) and Discovery rose to $32. Big Sky is $49 and Snowbowl is $32, both student rates.

If you’re considering a season pass, most mountains are still offering a preseason deal. Today is the last day to buy preseason passes to Discovery. Preseason student passes are $300 instead of $330.

Snowbowl’s cutoff is Nov. 12, after which student passes are $490 instead of $425.

If Lost Trail is your mountain of choice, grab a pass before Nov. 15 for $425 and save $75.