Strength of schedule not team’s weakness this season

It’s Nov. 24, 2007 and the University of Montana football team had seemingly preserved their perfect season. Running back Lex Hilliard scored on a one-yard run to put Montana up 22-17 against the Wofford Terriers with less than five minutes left to play. 

But the Southern Conference champs did the unthinkable, marching the length of the field with their veer option attack. With 32 seconds left, fullback Michael Hobbs scored from six yards out to put Wofford up 23-22. The Grizzlies comeback bid failed when Dan Carpenter’s 47-yard field goal just missed as time expired.

Griz Nation was unquestionably distraught. Some said Montana had underestimated the Terriers, citing Wofford’s win earlier in the season against two-time defending FCS champion Appalachian State. Others felt the loss could be traced to one thing – Montana’s weak non-conference schedule.

In the four weeks leading up to Big Sky Conference play, Montana squared off against Southern Utah, Division II Fort Lewis, and FCS independent Albany. Montana defeated all three by a combined score of 121-31. 

Cynics said Montana and its 11-0 record was nothing but a product of a seemingly easy schedule. But making the perfect FCS schedule to maximize a team’s potential is easier said than done.

When the playoff committee selects at-large teams to accompany conference champions in the 16-team FCS playoffs, they primarily take into consideration the number of Division I wins a program accumulates in that particular season. A Division I win is a win over a team in either the FBS or FCS (formerly I-A and 1-AA). Therefore, scheduling teams like Fort Lewis may be detrimental to a team’s playoff chances if they fall one win short of playoffs. That also means playing a BCS conference power house can also hurt a team’s playoff chances, as it’s highly unlikely an upset will occur and the loss will count toward the team’s total Division I record at year’s end. 

In other words, blowing out Fort Lewis 49-0 neither harms nor benefits a team, but losing to Iowa 41-7, as Montana did two seasons ago, not only hurts a team’s playoff resume, but possibly the team itself.

Playing perennial BCS powers like Montana did in 2005 and 2006 when they it Oregon and Iowa, respectively, has an ever-increasing allure for FCS programs.  Whether athletic directors want to admit it or not, money is the main reason to play up. At almost every Division I university, football programs’ profits supports all varsity programs and Montana is no different.

Playing Oregon and Iowa netted Montana almost $1 million in revenue, money that helped alleviate the athletic department’s debt.

While money is attractive and upsets are possible, as Appalachian State taught us last season when they knocked off Michigan, there’s also the risk of injuries. The Griz experienced this first hand at Iowa, when All-American punter Tyson Johnson tore his ACL, missing the entire season. With no backup, place kicker Carpenter was forced into punting duties for the remainder of the season.

Montana’s non-conference scheduling seems to concern their playoff seed rather than their playoff spot since the Griz have earned the BSC’s automatic FCS playoff bid 15 straight times. Only the top four teams in the playoffs receive seeding, but being among the top four almost guarantees home playoff games until semi-finals. The selection committee determines other playoff games’ locations, with the top criteria being the school’s ability to host the contest. In other words, Montana will almost undoubtedly receive at least one home playoff game every season they make playoffs.

This season the Grizzlies’ schedule will be an upgrade simply with the addition of a road trip to Cal Poly. The No. 11 Mustangs had the most prolific passing offense in the nation last season. Two more FCS opponents follow before conference season begins, which promises to be the most challenging since Montana began their streak of conference titles. Montana will be tested like never before with trips to Eastern Washington and Weber State. And the Brawl of the Wild against Montana State is never a certain win. 

Facing big programs garners big money and the possibility of both a program-changing upset and the risk of injury exists. Playing Division II schools like Fort Lewis and Central Washington garners both wins and playing time for non-starters, but does nothing to boost the end-of-the-year résumé. After walking both sides of the line, Montana will try to walk the straight and narrow with a formidable schedule, both in the Big Sky and abroad.

If the Griz are up to the challenge, all skepticism will cease. But if the Griz fail to make the playoffs for the first time in 16 years, the skeptics can’t blame this schedule.

colter.nuanez@umontana.edu